The gaming industry is abuzz with the anticipated launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 and its inclusion in Xbox's Game Pass subscription service. Industry analysts are offering their insights into the potential impact this integration could have on the number of subscribers, with estimates ranging from 2.5 million to 4 million new sign-ups.
Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, suggests that while the move could result in up to six million lost sales—assuming 25% of Game Pass subscribers would have purchased the game otherwise—it could also drive between three to four million new subscribers to the service. This, according to Pachter, is a "good overall" development for Microsoft and consumers, despite the potential decline in headline sales figures.
Piers Harding-Rolls, chief games analyst at Ampere, takes a more conservative stance, predicting a 10% increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscribers, translating to 2.5 million new subscribers. He notes that not all of these will be entirely new users, as some will be upgrades from the Core and Standard tiers of Game Pass, which do not include the 'Ultimate' tier's offerings like Call of Duty. Harding-Rolls also suggests that the loss in premium sales could be offset through other monetization strategies, such as in-game purchases.
The removal of the 14-day $1 trial offer indicates Microsoft's intention to maximize subscription revenue from the introduction of such a significant franchise. Harding-Rolls posits that while the initial cost for Microsoft will be high, Call of Duty's live-service nature offers strong in-game monetization potential, allowing Microsoft to trade full-game sales for a larger audience that can be monetized through gameplay.
Brett Hunt, a market analyst at Newzoo, believes that Black Ops 6 will attract a more significant audience this year, particularly compared to last year's Modern Warfare 3. This is not solely due to its inclusion in Game Pass but also because of the game's mutual exclusivity in campaign content, a new multiplayer movement system, and the return of round-based Zombies. Hunt suggests that these features could result in numbers closer to those of Modern Warfare 2, which had 21.7 million monthly active users in the US, compared to 12 million for Modern Warfare 3.
The impact of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on PlayStation is also a topic of discussion. With the end of Sony's content and marketing exclusivity agreement with Activision and the unavailability of Game Pass on PlayStation 5, there is potential for a shift in audience from PlayStation to Xbox. However, Harding-Rolls explains that cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts could mitigate this shift, as players may choose to play the premium campaign on Xbox while continuing to play the free-to-play Warzone on their preferred console.
Analysts agree that the success of this move will depend on Xbox's ability to retain the new subscribers beyond the game's launch period. Dr. Serkan Toto from Katan Games highlights the pressure on Xbox to execute this strategy correctly, given the company's gaming unit has not grown as expected. He questions whether Call of Duty can make the Game Pass business model work and retain subscribers in the long run.
In conclusion, the launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 into Game Pass is expected to significantly boost the subscription service's user base. While this may come at the cost of initial game sales, the potential for increased subscription revenue and in-game monetization presents a promising opportunity for Microsoft. The true measure of success will be in the months following the game's launch, as Xbox works to retain and engage these new subscribers.
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